Buckle up, NBA fans! The trade deadline is looming, and the rumor mill is churning. Forget boring speculation – we're talking potential seismic shifts that could redefine championship contenders. Could Giannis Antetokounmpo or Trae Young actually be on the move? Our experts dissect the biggest trade deadline questions, and the answers might shock you.
As of today, we're just one month away from the NBA trade deadline. Things have been surprisingly quiet so far, almost eerily so. But with the Oklahoma City Thunder showing signs of vulnerability and a logjam in the Eastern Conference standings from the fourth to eighth seeds, expect the calm before the storm. It would be a major surprise if the status quo remained. Think of it like this: teams are like sharks circling, waiting for the opportune moment to strike and acquire the piece that might put them over the top.
The Athletic's senior NBA writers – Sam Amick, Josh Robbins, and John Hollinger – have gathered to delve into the narratives, players, and teams they're watching most closely. Let's get right to it!
What's the biggest league-wide storyline you're monitoring as the trade deadline approaches?
Amick: Look, I know it's predictable, but I can't ignore the Giannis situation. Even if he isn't traded before February 5th – which I still believe is the most probable outcome – the precarious situation in Milwaukee is impossible to overlook. And it's not just his puzzling response to the recent report about a possible departure (remember that cryptic tweet? Yeah, that one). The ongoing struggles on the court make you wonder if he might finally, and definitively, request a trade in the coming weeks.
Case in point? They lost to the Wizards on Wednesday night. The Wizards!. That's a team deep in rebuild mode.
That single game served as a stark reminder that Antetokounmpo's career goals – goals he's always been vocal about – are a long way off. At 31 and four years removed from the title that he desperately hopes isn't his last, the brutal truth is that these Bucks are nowhere near contention. Longtime general manager Jon Horst is reportedly searching for an impact player who could inject life into the second half of the season. But it's hard to see how he can pull the Bucks out of this downward spiral. Can one player really make that much of a difference?
Robbins: I'm fascinated by the sheer number of star players, even superstar players, who could be available at the deadline.
Sam already mentioned Giannis. Then there's Anthony Davis. These are superstars who could potentially switch teams. And then you have stars like LaMelo Ball, Ja Morant, and Trae Young.
Don't get hung up on the “superstar” and “star” labels. My main point is that these are five high-profile players who have a significant impact on the court, and all of them could be available. The trade deadline almost always brings surprises. But this year, there's already smoke around Giannis, A.D., Ball, Morant, and Young. It's like a powder keg waiting to explode!
Hollinger: As much as I'd like to be an Atlanta homer and talk about Young or potential Davis trades, Giannis is the one guy who might be in play at this trade deadline and who could dramatically alter the balance of power in the league. It makes sense for both parties to move on, and yet it's reminiscent of Damian Lillard's endgame in Portland, where neither side wants to be seen as the “bad guy” who pushed the eject button. It's a delicate dance.
If we want to identify a broader trend, here's one: Will teams continue to be so reckless with unprotected draft picks in trades for elite players, as they have been in recent years? Or will they be discouraged by examples like the Clippers and Pelicans, where it could all backfire this June? Are teams finally learning a lesson about the long-term consequences of mortgaging their future for short-term gains?
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis are the two superstars potentially on the trade market. Which teams will they be on after the deadline, and why?
Amick: I… think… Giannis will remain with the Bucks? Even if he does decide to demand a trade, it takes two to tango. And considering Horst will be seeking a massive return for one of the best players of all time, it's hard to imagine that even the most serious contenders could meet those demands mid-season. The asking price would be astronomical.
As for Davis, my gut tells me he'll also stay put. Mid-season trades are inherently more complicated than those in the summer, and the Mavericks are in the midst of an organizational transition that makes this kind of deal difficult to execute. After firing general manager Nico Harrison in November and handing the front office reins to Matt Riccardi and Michael Finley, it's unclear who will be in charge of the roster after this season. Adding to the complexity, Davis was the centerpiece of the ill-fated Luka Dončić trade with the Lakers, which makes it even harder to find a deal that would satisfy frustrated fans. The optics would be terrible.
Robbins: There's not much I can add about Giannis that Sam hasn't already covered. But I want to emphasize that there's a lot we don't know about his situation. How much does he really want a change of scenery? A little? Or a lot? That's the million-dollar question.
Regarding A.D., he's dealt with enough injuries in recent years that it seems unlikely a contending team would be willing to offer the Mavericks what they'd want for him at mid-season. How can a contender rely on Davis to be available during the playoffs – or rely on his availability enough to justify trading away significant draft assets? A trade involving Davis might require multiple teams, and such a complex deal might be easier to accomplish during the offseason. It's a logistical nightmare.
Hollinger: Giannis is the easier one for me: I think he'll be on the Bucks because neither side has the guts to be the one to initiate the divorce. Summer? That might be a different story. The pressure will be even higher then.
Here's a counterpoint to my own prediction: The Bucks could still tank this season and get a high draft pick, even though they owe a pick swap to the Pelicans. The Pels are so bad that the “second best” of the Bucks' and Pels' picks might still be very high. There's a chance they could both land in the top four of the lottery.
That's why I think it's sensible for the Bucks to trade Giannis. But I still don't think they'll do it. It's a risk vs. reward calculation, and the risk of backlash is too high.
As for Davis, I'll lean towards “Not Dallas,” but it's close. I don't have a perfect trade partner in mind, but I think Dallas's price for him will be reasonable enough that some center-deprived team will convince themselves to take the plunge at the deadline. The tricky part for any acquiring team will be managing expectations regarding Davis' potential extension number in the offseason. Giving him the full max deal he's eligible for (four years, $275 million) at this point in his career would be reckless. It's a gamble with potentially disastrous consequences.
If you were running a team, considering salary and acquisition cost, which guard would you be most interested in: Ja Morant, LaMelo Ball, or Trae Young?
Amick: I'm definitely guilty of recency bias here, but the answer – given what happened on Tuesday night – is Morant. If you didn't see him drop 40 on the Sixers in that overtime loss in Memphis, you might have forgotten how electrifying his game can be. Beyond the stats – 16 of 22 from the field(!) – it was his non-stop energy and sheer will to win that made me take notice.
It had been a while since we saw that guy show out like that. And even with all the off-court concerns surrounding Morant, he still shows flashes of being able to carry a franchise. After all, that was his developmental path not too long ago. He's still just 26 years old, with two guaranteed seasons on his deal after this one ($87 million combined). This means any team that trades for him gets a good, long look before deciding if he's worthy of being their franchise player. He struggled again three nights later in a loss to the Lakers, but it makes you wonder if that spark is still there somewhere, waiting to be ignited.
Robbins: This question highlights the inherent risks with Ball, Morant, and Young, which explain why they might be available in the first place. Each player comes with baggage.
Morant is the best all-around player of the three. I agree with Sam on that.
Still, I'd go with Young. Despite his defensive struggles, Young led the Hawks to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2021, where they lost to the eventual champions, the Milwaukee Bucks. I have two important caveats. First, any team trading for Young would need to have ample defense on its roster to compensate for his deficiencies. Second, because Young has a player option for the 2026-27 season, any team trading for him would need a strong understanding of what it would take to re-sign him and be comfortable with that cost (or the eventual negotiated cost). It's a long-term commitment.
Hollinger: Young, because you know what you're getting. This makes it much easier to value him properly in a trade. He doesn't have the reliability issues that the other two have, which should make a team much more comfortable making him a core piece of their plan.
Here's the stark difference: Young has four seasons that would be a career-high in games played for Morant, and three for Ball. Over the five years before this one, he's played an average of 68.4 games a year, while Morant is at just 48.0 and Ball at 46.2. Availability is the best ability, right?
That doesn't mean Trae becomes a team's A-1 star; realistically, he's no better than the second-best player on a true contender. But he's more reliable in that role than Ja or LaMelo.
Which role player on a team projected as a seller do you believe a contender should be most aggressive in acquiring?
Amick: Is Michael Porter Jr. a role player? His numbers might suggest otherwise, as he's averaging 25.9 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 3.4 assists for the Nets. According to NBA.com, only three other players are hitting those marks (Nikola Jokić, Dončić, and Antetokounmpo). He's in elite company.
Still, his six seasons with the Nuggets, especially the 2023 title run, showed that he's more than capable of being a difference-maker on a title contender as a third or fourth option – as long as he's healthy. That doesn't mean he can't be a go-to star, and he may very well become an All-Star this year as Brooklyn's Alpha. But the combination of his shooting (40.8 percent on 9.1 three-point attempts per game) and contract (a hefty $38.3 million owed this season and $40.8 million next season) make him an interesting name to watch. He offers real impact and a relatively short financial runway, assuming the money makes sense for your payroll.
As I reported on Wednesday, the Bucks are looking at Porter. For them and any other potential suitors, he's a tempting possibility, even with some red flags surrounding his situation. There's always a catch, isn't there?
Robbins: Contenders can never have enough high-level 3-and-D players, especially during the playoffs. The Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers reinforced that lesson last season.
Looking at teams that could be sellers, I'd inquire about Phoenix's Royce O'Neale and New Orleans' Trey Murphy III.
The surprising Suns are in the playoff hunt in the West, but it's reasonable to think they'd at least listen if a potential trade partner is willing to help replenish their supply of future draft picks. O'Neale has a reasonably priced contract; he's in the second year of a four-year, $42 million deal.
Murphy is the type of player that other players consider underrated. At 25, he's young enough to expect further improvement, especially playing alongside a contending core. The Pelicans' asking price in a trade would almost certainly be significant. They know what they have.
Hollinger: I don't see Brooklyn trading Porter when they have a strong incentive to be good next year (pick swap with Houston). Nor do I see the Pelicans rushing to move on from Murphy (or Saddiq Bey, for that matter), considering they both have years left on their deals. Yes, teams should absolutely be asking about Murphy, but asking nicely probably won't get them very far. Myles Turner is another interesting name, but he'd only be available if the Bucks also decided to trade Giannis. A domino effect, if you will.
So, let me throw out another name: Justin Champagnie of the Wizards. While many are familiar with his brother Julian (after his Champagnie Supernova against the Knicks on New Year's Eve), it's Justin who's stuck on a Wizards team that has other priorities for wing minutes. This is despite Justin proving to be a useful 3-and-D player. He's also on an amazing near-minimum salary contract for two seasons beyond this one, allowing him to fit into any cap structure. A hidden gem, perhaps?
Which team that's neither at the top nor the bottom of the standings would you most like to see make a definitive move, whether it's to improve or trade its best players?
Amick: Antman needs another superhero on his squad!
While Anthony Edwards' Timberwolves still have time to correct their course, their 23-13 start has been concerning enough for those responsible to sound the alarms. Edwards left the bench and headed for the weight room with nearly eight minutes left in a loss against Atlanta on Wednesday night. This is a clear sign that he's frustrated. Head coach Chris Finch has also had multiple post-game press conferences that suggest the same.
After two consecutive trips to the West Finals, there's understandable urgency to take that next step. And with team president Tim Connelly widely known as one of the most aggressive executives in the entire league, it wouldn't surprise me if he found a way to land a high-profile player before February 5th. He's not afraid to make a splash.
Robbins: Orlando already made its “all-in” move when it traded for Desmond Bane over the summer. Bane has had a strong impact, increasing month to month as he's grown more comfortable with his new team. But the Magic still need more shooting for the playoffs when the pace slows down to a half-court game. Ideally, any addition in shooting wouldn't significantly hurt their defense. Someone like O'Neale would be ideal because he'd provide defense and be a threat to shoot from the corners when Paolo Banchero or Franz Wagner drive and create. A perfect fit.
Hollinger: How about a team at the bottom making a move to improve? The Indiana Pacers need to start building next year's team now by acquiring a center via trade instead of waiting until free agency in July. Indy will be limited by the non-taxpayer mid-level exception in the best-case scenario next summer, but they have a window to acquire a more expensive player in a trade by sending out contracts, including the expiring deal of Bennedict Mathurin (a likely restricted free agent).
Bringing back Tyrese Haliburton plus three of the other four starters from their Eastern Conference title run in 2025 and key subs T.J. McConnell and Obi Toppin, then adding a high lottery pick, should make Indy strong again. But they haven't replaced the departed Myles Turner, and they can't realistically contend in 2026-27 as an exclusively small-ball team. They need size in the middle.
So, what do you think? Will Giannis stay in Milwaukee? Is trading for a star always the right move? And which team is poised to make the biggest splash at the deadline? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!
