Hold onto your seats, movie buffs, because the box office is about to get a whole lot more exciting! But here's where it gets controversial: Can Avatar: Fire and Ash live up to the towering success of its predecessor, The Way of Water? As of December 5, 2025, Shawn Robbins from Box Office Theory dives into the latest 6-week box office tracking and forecasts, shedding light on this and other burning questions in the film industry. The full report is available in their Substack newsletter, but let’s break down the highlights for you.
Key Insights & Bold Predictions:
Avatar: Fire and Ash is currently trailing The Way of Water in pre-sale numbers, but don’t count it out just yet. Despite stiff competition, the film has time to build momentum, especially as audiences wait for premium screenings. Early social media buzz is overwhelmingly positive, suggesting a strong, long-term box office run rather than a record-breaking opening weekend. But here’s the kicker: Will it sustain the franchise’s legacy, or will it fall short? What do you think—is Avatar still a guaranteed hit, or is its dominance waning?
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Looking ahead to 2026, January might seem slow, but there are a few potential standouts. Greenland 2: Migration aims to capitalize on the first film’s at-home success during the COVID era, with Gerard Butler’s star power and a PG-13 rating working in its favor. Primate and Soulm8te, however, are locked in a bizarre head-to-head battle as horror-thrillers on the same weekend. While Primate has strong critical reviews, its R-rating and muted social media buzz could hold it back. Soulm8te, on the other hand, lacks the commercial heat needed to revive the struggling M3GAN franchise. Controversial take: Is the horror genre oversaturated, or are these films simply missteps in marketing and timing?
28 Years Later: The Bone Temple is set to reignite fan excitement in mid-January, with Ralph Fiennes leading the charge and the return of writer Alex Garland and producer Danny Boyle. Directed by Nia DaCosta, the film continues the franchise’s beloved storylines. While it may not match the pent-up demand of its predecessor, it’s expected to perform well enough to greenlight the planned third installment. But here’s the question: Can this sequel recapture the magic of the original, or is it just another cash grab?
6-Week Box Office Calendar & Forecasts (as of 12/4/25):
Below is a snapshot of the upcoming releases, with detailed forecasts available to paid subscribers on Substack. These numbers reflect current trends and are subject to change based on market conditions.
| Release Date | Title | Distributor | 3-Day Low-End Opening | 3-Day High-End Opening | 3-Day Pinpoint Forecast | Domestic Total Low-End | Domestic Total High-End | Domestic Total Pinpoint Forecast |
|--------------|-------|-------------|-----------------------|------------------------|-------------------------|-----------------------|--------------------------------|-------------------------------|
| 12/12/2025 | Dr. Seuss’ How the Grinch Stole Christmas (25th Anniversary) | Universal Pictures | $2,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $3,500,000 | $4,600,000 | $11,500,000 | $12,300,000 |
| 12/12/2025 | Ella McCay | Disney | $1,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $2,500,000 | $2,500,000 | $10,000,000 | $5,500,000 |
| 12/12/2025 | The Shining (45th Anniversary) | Warner Bros. Pictures | $2,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $2,500,000 | $3,000,000 | $6,500,000 | $4,000,000 |
| 12/19/2025 | Avatar: Fire and Ash | Disney | $95,000,000 | $115,000,000 | $103,000,000 | $475,000,000 | $560,000,000 | $510,000,000 |
| 12/19/2025 | David | Angel Studios | $20,000,000 | $30,000,000 | $25,000,000 | $83,000,000 | $125,000,000 | $110,000,000 |
| 12/19/2025 | The Housemaid | Lionsgate | $18,000,000 | $25,000,000 | $24,000,000 | $71,000,000 | $136,000,000 | $108,000,000 |
| 12/19/2025 | The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants | Paramount Pictures | $15,000,000 | $23,000,000 | $16,000,000 | $95,000,000 | $156,000,000 | $105,000,000 |
| 12/25/2025 | Anaconda (2025) | Sony Pictures | $15,000,000 | $23,000,000 | $18,000,000 | $55,000,000 | $83,000,000 | $70,000,000 |
| 12/25/2025 | Marty Supreme (Expansion) | A24 | $10,000,000 | $15,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $36,000,000 | $57,000,000 | $48,000,000 |
| 12/25/2025 | Song Sung Blue | Focus Features | $7,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $27,000,000 | $55,000,000 | $38,000,000 |
| 1/9/2026 | Greenland 2: Migration | Lionsgate | $11,000,000 | $16,000,000 | Available on Substack | $26,500,000 | $43,000,000 | |
| 1/9/2026 | I Was a Stranger (Expansion) | Angel Studios | $2,000,000 | $5,000,000 | Available on Substack | $5,000,000 | $20,000,000 | |
| 1/9/2026 | Primate | Paramount Pictures | $4,000,000 | $9,000,000 | Available on Substack | $10,000,000 | $24,000,000 | |
| 1/9/2026 | Soulm8te | Universal Pictures | $5,000,000 | $10,000,000 | Available on Substack | $12,000,000 | $27,000,000 | |
| 1/16/2026 | 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple | Sony Pictures | Available on Substack | | | | | |
Final Thoughts:
The upcoming months are packed with a mix of blockbuster sequels, nostalgic re-releases, and potential sleeper hits. But the real question is: Which of these films will dominate the box office, and which will fall flat? Share your predictions in the comments—we’d love to hear your take! And don’t forget to subscribe to Box Office Theory’s Substack for the full, detailed forecasts and insider analysis. Let the cinematic battle begin!
